Gold Cup 2011: The Final - Mexico vs. USMNT

This is the final that everyone expected, and virtually everyone wanted to see.  While the road to the Rose Bowl hasn't been simple for either team (see the US loss to Panama in the group stage, or Mexico's narrow extra-time victory over Honduras in the semifinal); was their really any doubt that the continent's two juggernauts would be vying for the regional title?  Since the Gold Cup began in 1991, either the US (4 wins, 3 runner-up finishes) or Mexico (5 wins, 1 runner-up) has won all but one of the titles - Canada won in 2000.

With the region's two premier teams playing for the title, the game has gotten a lot of attention in the national media.  This morning, ESPN had Alexi Lalas on SportsCenter discussing the match.  The Worldwide Leader couldn't resist mentioning that the US has lost just once to Mexico on US soil since 2000, though that one loss was a 5-0 drilling in the 2009 Gold Cup final, though this blog post by Scott French of ESPN Los Angeles should make some USMNT fans feel better.  According to French, the US has outscored El Tri 21-8 in matches outside of Estadio Azteca since 2000.  Throw the 5-0 beating out, and the difference jumps to 21-3 in 12 matches!

Gold Cup 2011: Jamaica-US Preview

Thanks to this absolute laser by Jozy Altidore, the US beat Guadeloupe to advance to the knockout round of the 2011 Gold Cup.  Despite this victory, the US finished second in their group and drew Jamaica in the quarterfinals.  On current form, this could be an extremely tough game for the Yanks.  The Reggae Boyz have been one of the most impressive sides in the tournament, while the Yanks have underperformed.

Despite the uninspired performance of the USMNT, ESPN's Five Aside Blog had this to say about the upcoming match:

The United States failed to win its group for the first time in Gold Cup history. As Group C runner-up, the United States faces Group B winner Jamaica, the only team other than Mexico to win all of its group games. USA has reached the semis in nine of the 10 previous tournaments, while Jamaica hasn't reached the semifinals since 1998. Despite tournament form, SPI rates USA an 83.9 percent favorite to advance and extend its unbeaten (9-0-8) record against the Reggae Boyz. Jamaica has lost all four of its Gold Cup elimination games.¹

Clearly, the SPI algorithm thinks the US will be able to overcome its malaise and put in the kind of performance American fans expect.

Gold Cup 2011: USMNT 1 - Panama 2 - The Fallout

While willing to give Bob Bradley the benefit of the doubt,
the USMNT cannot continue to lose matches to inferior sides.

I could start this post, as I am sure many have started (and will start) with a call to have Bob Bradley removed from his position at the helm of the United States Men's National Team.  I'm not going to do that.  Every time the United States suffers a defeat, whether to a CONCACAF minnow or a European power, US soccer fans call for his dismissal.  Do I think Bradley has shortcomings as a coach? Yes.  Do I think the USSF should fire him immediately? No.  Do I think the US needs to re-evaluate its coaching staff after the Gold Cup? Yes.  As Brent Latham at The USA 10 Kit wrote:

Coach Bob Bradley, 3.5 – Did what he could with limited resources, but then again, it's a hole he got himself into. Who on that bench was going to really help him? At some point, you really do have to ask if he’s capable of getting the best out of the resources at his disposal. That moment is now sooner rather than later. While I am not calling for his ouster, it does seem curious that Bradley continually ignores the fact that his best forward is playing in the midfield.  Clint Dempsey has shown time and again, both with the USMNT and at Fulham, that he is best when he's near the goal.  He has the strength, vision and creativity to pull off some shots that most of the forwards in the US pool would never dream about.  His record in front of goal the last several seasons and especially this season (12 goals, 3 assists) show that Deuce needs to play up top.  If Dempsey playing at forward would allow Bradley to keep Juan Agudelo on the bench where he could be used as a sub late in the game - something that has worked well for the US since Agudelo's introduction to the senior team (obviously Chris Wondolowski is not the answer).

For a more in-depth review of how the boys played last night, check the post from The USA 10 Kit, Goal.com, or the NY Times' Goal blog.

Beyond raising questions about the direction of the USMNT, what does this loss mean for the Yanks' more immediate future in this tournament?  With the loss, the US sits in 2nd place in group C behind Panama, who has collected  6 points from their two matches.  The US plays Guadeloupe in their final group game.  Guadeloupe has shown in past Gold Cup editions that they have some quality (finishing 4th in 2007 and 6th in 2009), and gave both Panama and Canada scares this year.  Despite playing both Canada and Panama tough, this is a team the Yanks should beat.  Winning assures the US of a spot in the quarterfinal. Where they will finish in the group gets more complicated.

Possible Outcomes:

•  If the US wins and Canada defeats Panama by fewer than 4 goals, the US would finish first


• Quarterfinal opponent - One of the two third places teams to advance - Guatemala (as of this post)


•  A US win and any other outcome from the Canada-Panama game would see the US finish 2nd in the group.


• Quarterfinal opponent - The winner of Group B (either Jamaica of Honduras).


• A draw with Guadeloupe would see the Yanks finish 2nd if Canada loses to/draws with Panama


• Quarterfinal opponent - The winner of Group B (either Jamaica of Honduras)


• The US could also finish 2nd despite a loss, as long as they lose to Guadeloupe by only 1 goal and Panama defeats Canada


• Quarterfinal opponent - The winner of Group B (either Jamaica of Honduras)


• The US would finish 3rd in group if they lose to Guadeloupe by 2 or 3 goals and Panama defeats Canada. This isn't a death sentence, as they could still qualify for the quarters on points if either El Salvador - Cuba in Group A or Guatemala - Grenada in Group B end in a draw.


• Quarterfinal opponent - As it stands now, Mexico.  This is the WORST possible scenario; thankfully, it is also the most unlikely.

The US plays Guadeloupe at Livestrong Sporting Park in Kansas City on Tuesday night at 9pm.  Those interested in watching the match can catch the action on Fox Soccer Channel, or should check out their local chapter of The American Outlaws.

World Cup Quarterfinal Preview and Predictions

Having taken a vacation to recover from the US's crushing loss to Ghana, it's back to the World Cup.  Despite the lack of both England and the US, I am still enamored with the quadrennial football fiesta.  The one thing that is missing is a team to support.  At the beginning of the tournament, as with Euro 2008, I was into the Dutch.  What's not to like?  They play flowing soccer that is beautiful to watch.  Yet, as the tournament has gone on, the in-fighting in the Dutch camp has left me with a sour taste in my mouth.  I just can't bring myself to root for Brazil or Germany.  I almost likened cheering for them to cheering for the Yankees, but the Brazilians are eminently more likeable, the Germans marginally so.  For obvious reasons Ghana is out.  Paraguay just doesn't do much for me.  They don't play exciting soccer and they don't have any superlative talents to seduce me.  Uruguay has some appeal.  They are a plucky country with a strong World Cup tradition (they won in 1930 and 1950).  They also sport Luis Suarez, the best forward many people have never heard of.  Check him out, he was prolific with Ajax and will be the target of a big money move this summer.  There is something about Argentina that I like.  Is it their crazy manager?  Their diminutive talisman?  Or those spiffy uniforms?  I'm not sure, but they are a close second for me right now.  In discussions at work, I think I've settled on Spain.  They are fun to watch.  Their midfield picks teams apart and David Villa is a striking dynamo.  Can Spain win?  Yes.  They are the #2 team in the world and thankfully, they are on the opposite side of the bracket as Brazil.

Netherlands (#4 in the FIFA World Rankings) vs. Brazil (#1) - 10am, Friday 7/2:  It is truly a shame that this match is happening at the quarterfinal stage.  This match pits one of the best teams never to win a World Cup against the only team to win on 4 (hoping to make it 5) different continents.  Brazil has looked like a machine during the tournament.  They easily finished first in the supposed "Group of Death", never really having a problem.  They then dismantled a Chile team that was playing some excellent soccer coming into their round of 16 match.  While Brazil may not have their traditional flare, they are still fun to watch.  They are a tough squad that mirrors their manager and if it is possible with a Brazil team, they are greater than the sum of their parts (which is substantial).

The Dutch marched through their group and swept away Slovakia in the round of 16.  Arjen Robben returned to provide the spark the Dutch needed and should be a greater contributor against Brazil.  (As an aside, does anyone think that Robben is soccer's Greg Oden, a man who despite being a relatively young age looks like he's about 50).  The Dutch have played excellent defense and but have lacked a little of their traditional attacking flare.  What they haven't lacked is their traditional in-fighting.  Robin Van Persie and Wesley Sneijder just can't seem to bury a hatchet that has been around since Euro '08 and this tension has spilled over to the rest of the team.  Another question mark is Maarten Stekelenburg, the Dutch keeper.  He has played admirably thus far, but can he withstand the Brazilian attack?

This match should provide some fun soccer.  Ultimately, I think that Brazil's strong midfield and defense (captained by Lucio) will clog the field and prevent Robben, Van Persie, Sneijeder and the rest of the Dutch attacking talent from truly opening up the game.  I also believe that Luis Fabiano, Robinho, and Kaka will conjure enough magic to break through the Dutch defense.  Prediction: Brazil 

Uruguay (#16) vs. Ghana (#32) - 2:30pm, Friday 7/2:  The late game tomorrow pits a team that has been to the top of the mountain (albeit 60 years ago) against Africa's last hope.  Uruguay has looked impressive thus far, easily winning its group (thanks in part to an imploding France and a not ready for prime time South Africa).   It took a late winner from the aforementioned Luis Suarez to defeat South Korea in the round of 16, but Uruguay had the better of the chances in that game.  Uruguay has displayed an attacking style that is fun to watch, and they have two top level forwards in Suarez and Diego Forlan.  Fernando Muslera, who plays his club soccer with Lazio in Italy, has been great in goal.  Uruguay will be missing defender Diego Godin, due to injury, and will have to find a replacement.

Ghana, as we know, defeated the US in the round of 16 to advance to the quarterfinals.  Prior to that, they finished 2nd in what I thought was the toughest group at the World Cup.  They were able to make it out of a group that consisted of Germany, Serbia and Australia.  Ghana is the lowest ranked team left playing in the World Cup and was the lowest ranked team in their group.  The Black Stars have taken advantage of home-field advantage and are receiving the support of the entire continent of Africa.  Ghana hadn't scored a goal in the run of play prior to the US game, so scoring for them could be difficult.  Asamoah Gyan and Kevin Prince-Boateng will provide the attacking impetus.

This match could be fun, though I doubt it will be as exciting as the early game tomorrow.  Ghana's defense and goal-keeping has looked shaky (the US game notwithstanding) and I think that the Uruguayan front line will be able to pick its spots.  I also think that Ghana will find it difficult to break down the Uruguayan defense and get a shot past Muslera.  Forlan and Suarez will lead Uruguay to its first semifinal appearance in 40 years.  Prediction: Uruguay

Would you want to mess with this guy?

Argentina (#7) vs. Germany (#6) - 10am, Saturday 7/3:

This match has generated the most off-field buzz, as one might expect when the match includes Diego Maradona.  A war of words has erupted between Germany and Argentina that stems from bad blood created at the 2006 World Cup.  Germany defeated Argentina on penalty kicks in that game, which was followed by some unsportsmanlike conduct (punches were thrown).  Bastian Schweinsteiger, one of Germany's most important midfielders, admitted that he has been thinking about the 2006 match and expects Argentina to try to stir things up.  Diego Maradona, of course, replied to Schweinsteiger's comments by donning a mock German accent to taunt the midfielder.  Maradona is crazy, who knows what the guy will do next.  It is part of Argentina's appeal.  Carloz Tevez also got in on the war of words stating that he believed Mexico were better than Germany (a statement that is clearly false, my US fan credentials aside).

On the field, Germany has been its usual efficient self.  Apart from a 1-0 loss to Serbia (partially thanks to a dubious red card), Germany has looked every bit a contender.  Disallowed goal or not, Germany demolished England in the round of 16, dismantled Australia in the group stage and eased past Ghana.  The side is a mix of new and old, and features some up-and-coming talents that will surely be targets in the summer transfer window.  Mesut Özil has been a revelation, for Germany in the midfield and Thomas Müller has been his equal.  These World Cup rookies have been guided along by veterans like Schweinsteiger, Miroslav Klose, Lucas Podolski, and Philipp Lahm.  Germany was once again unfancied coming into this tournament but have (as is usual for German teams) stepped up when it matters most.

Just as Germany has looked dominant in their run to the quarters, Argentina has been clicking on all cylinders.  Following an uninspiring 1-0 victory over Nigeria, Argentina then scored 9 goals while conceding just 2 over its next three games.  Destroying South Korea 4-1, Greece 2-0 and Mexico 3-1.  Gonzalo Higuain, has been in fine form, and the defense has made a minimum number of mistakes.  Lionel Messi hasn't scored yet, but his presence is almost worth as much as his goal scoring.   Argentina's mercurial manager has actually made some shrew managerial decisions, and hasn't impeded a stacked team's progression.

Whether Argentina's defense can hold is a question that must be answered.  They will face a difficult task against Germany, but I think they are up to it.  Argentina will get some revenge for the loss in 2006 and advance to the semifinal.  Prediction: Argentina

Paraguay (#31) vs. Spain (#2) - 2:30pm, Saturday 7/3:  The last of the quarterfinals might also be the least intriguing.  Spain should dominate this match, at least on paper.  Paraguay has played well throughout the tournament, winning a group that included Italy.  Looking back, Paraguay may have won the easiest group in the tournament.  New Zealand were up for a match, but certainly aren't that dangerous and Slovakia were never able to regain their qualifying form.  Paraguay's victory over Japan was a scoreless affair that required penalty kicks to decide the outcome.  Thus far, Paraguay has only scored 3 goals.  On the other hand, they have only conceded 1 goal.  Paraguay needs to play amazing defense to shut down the Spanish midfield and a great game from Roque Santa Cruz or Óscar Cardozo if they want to advance.

Following a shocking 1-0 loss to Switzerland in their opening game, Spain has looked like the team that won Euro 2008.  They have passed the ball beautifully through midfield, defended well, and David Villa has been his usual goal-scoring self.  The one negative thus far has been Fernando Torres inability to find the form that made him one of the most feared strikers in the EPL and all of international soccer. I don't think that Spain will need Torres to find that form to win this game.  Will they need it to win the tournament?  Yes, they will.

My guess is that Paraguay will try to sit back on defense and then counter-attack.  This could lead to a rather drab game.  I, ultimately, see Spain winning this game after they break down Paraguay's defensive shell.  Prediction: Spain

If my predictions are right, there will be three South American teams in the semifinals, an incredible stat when you think that South America only sent 5 teams to the World Cup.  The match-ups would be Uruguay-Brazil and Argentina-Spain.  Both games should be fun to watch and the possibilities for the finals are tantalizing.  I can only hope that my support of Spain doesn't jinx them the way my support of the US and England contributed to their respective downfalls.  Viva La Furia Roja!

Putting Things in Perspective

Joe Gaetjens scored the game winner in the US upset of
England at the 1950 World Cup

The US pulled off an amazing victory yesterday that has been covered in this space.  In the last day, I've read a lot of reaction to the win and many people are classifying the win over Algeria as the biggest or most important win in US soccer history.  I just don't think that is true.  While the win goes a long way to create new soccer fans and gave the US their first group win since 1930 (the US finished third that year), it wasn't the biggest or most important victory.  I would argue the 2-0 victory over Mexico in the 2002 World Cup was more important and a bigger win.  The win propelled the US to the quarterfinals for the first time since 1930 and was a win over out most bitter rival on the world's largest stage.  One could also argue that the 2-0 victory over Spain (then ranked #1 in the world) was a bigger victory, as it propelled the US to its first international tournament final outside of its region.  Some argument can also be made the the shocking 1-0 victory over England in 1950 was bigger.  All that being said, I think yesterday's win could move up in the rankings depending on what the US does in the rest of the tournament.  The match-ups are actually favorable to the US.  They play Ghana on Saturday and if they are victorious would play either Uruguay or South Korea.  Neither team scares me.  If the US could beat the Uruguay-South Korea winner, they would advance to the semifinals for the first time since 1930.  At that stage things get trickier (a likely match-up against the Dutch, Brazil, or Spain could be in the cards depending on outcomes from the rest of group play), but a trip to the semifinals would be considered a huge success.

In other World Cup news, Italy lost its final group game to Slovakia, knocking the defending champions out of the tournament.  The last champion to lose before the knockout rounds was France in 2002.  As written before, it is the first time both teams from the previous final have failed to advance out of the group stage.  Paraguay drew with New Zealand, in a listless showing, but secured top spot in the group.  Slovakia, by virtue of its victory, also advances.  Slovakia is likely to play The Netherlands in the round of 16, while Paraguay looks set to face Portugal (mea culpa, misread the bracket) Japan.

France's Flame Out and Other Musings

Siphiwe Tshabalala (L) has been South Africa's danger man.

Wow!  Just wow!  When France goes down, they do it with panache.  Their 2010 World Cup campaign is eerily similar to their 2002 flame out.   During that World Cup. France lost to an African team (Senegal), drew with Uruguay and lost to Denmark.  The only wrinkle this time is instead of losing to a European team, they lost to a North American team.  Unfortunately for the continent of Africa and the host nation, South Africa was not able to duplicate Senegal's improbable qualification for the knockout round.  On their way to a 2-1 loss, Sidney Govou, Florent Malouda, Patrice Evra and Eric Abidal were all dropped from the starting line-up.  This sends a signal that these players must have been the main troublemakers in the French camp.   Raymond Domenech continued with his odd line-up choices starting Djibril Cisse over Thierry Henry (if you happen to click the link and look at Henry's bio, he looks a bit forlorn in the picture, perhaps he knew what was coming for France).  I understand that Henry is getting a little old in terms of international soccer (he's 32), but doesn't he present a better option up top than Djibril Cisse?  It will be interesting to see how France rebounds under the leadership of Laurent Blanc with Euro 2012 qualifying starting in September.

In other news from the France-South Africa game - Siphiwe Tshabalala, who plays in South Africa with Kaizer Chiefs, had another great game.  He assisted on South Africa's first goal with a great corner and was consistently dangerous from his midfield spot.  Steven Pienaar received most of the attention in the lead up to the World Cup, and rightfully so.  Pienaar plays for Everton in the EPL (4 goals and 3 assists this past season) and was much more of a known commodity.   Tshabalala (who has my favorite name at the World Cup) was a relative unknown outside of South Africa.  After his performance a European team will come calling for his services.  He was South Africa's most dangerous player all tournament and ultimately the star of the tournament for Bafana Bafana.  It's a shame that South Africa didn't advance from their group, becoming the first host country ever to not advance.

As of now, we know that Mexico and Uruguay have advanced.  Uruguay finished first in group A and will likely avoid a round of 16 match with Argentina.  Mexico will likely play Argentina, who should finish atop group B.  This would be the 2nd consecutive World Cup that Argentina and Mexico have met in the round of 16.  The next set of matches starts soon, off to enjoy more soccer.

Has Parity Come to International Soccer?

This World Cup seems to be, at least through most of the 2nd games in the group stage, signaling a new-found parity in international soccer.  The traditional European powers, England (8), Germany (6) , Spain (2), Italy (5), and France (9), home to the 5 biggest and supposedly best soccer leagues in the world (FIFA rankings in parentheses), have been dreadful thus far.  The records through 2 games (for Spain - 1) are:

	W	D	L	Pts	GD
England	0	2	0	2	0
France	0	1	1	1	-2
Germany	1	0	1	3	2
Italy	0	0	2	2	0
Spain	0	0	1	1	-1

As you can see, Germany is the only team to win a game (a 4-0 drubbing of Australia (20)), though they have also lost as well (1-0 to pre-tourney dark horse, Serbia (15)).  Italy and England have had to settle for a pair of draws each. One could argue that the first draw for each wasn't a bad result with England drawing the US (14) and Italy drawing Paraguay (31).  However, the second draw for each team has no doubt caused widespread panic in each country.  England drew unfancied Algeria (30), and Italy can thank a dubious PK for their draw with New Zealand (78), one of the lowest ranked teams at the World Cup.  New Zealand's squad consists of players that mostly play in the A-Leauge, Australia's top league, with a smattering of players plying their trade internationally.  They have 2 players who play in a top European league, Ryan Nelsen who plays in defense for Blackburn in the English Premier League and Chris Wood who plays forward for newly promoted West Bromwich Albion (also of the EPL).   A team with this makeup has no business drawing the defending champions.  Italy's entire squad is made up of players who play in Serie A, probably the 3rd best league in the world (after the EPL and La Liga), with the exception of captain Fabio Cannavaro who has just left Juventus to play for Al-Ahli in the United Arab Emirates.  This is another example of a team taking an opponent too lightly.  New Zealand was playing with house money and were able to cash in with a well deserved draw.

England controls their own destiny.  A win and they are through to the next round.  A draw coupled with a US loss would see the English through as well.  If England loses to Slovenia (25), their tournament is done.

Italy is also in position to advance, they are level on points with New Zealand.  Italy plays Slovakia (34) in the final group game, and based on rankings alone Italy should win.  Though, they should have beaten New Zealand too.  An Italian win sees them through to the next round.  A draw could also advance them, as long as New Zealand doesn't pull off a stunner against Paraguay (who have taken care of business) in their last group game.

France's struggles have been the subject of two previous posts, however, the most pressing problem may be that they are likely to miss the knockout rounds because of a loss to Mexico (17), nothing to be ashamed of, and a draw with Uruguay (16).  The French face South Africa (83) in their final game and need a massive win and some help to advance.

Germany is in the best shape of the teams that have completed two games.  By virtue of their big win over Australia they provided themselves with a large goal difference cushion (goal difference is the first tie-breaker used to determine which team advances to the next round in the even the teams are level on points).   For Germany, a win over Ghana (32) secures their spot in the next round.  They could also advance with a draw as long as Serbia does not win their game over Australia.

Spain has the most time to recover from their lethargic display against Switzerland.  With two games to play against inferior competition (Honduras (38) and Chile (18)).  Spain can right ship and advance to the 2nd round with a pair of wins.

While none of the teams are totally out of it (France is on life support), this has not been the cake walk most were expecting.  Also, an interesting tidbit is that if both France and Italy fail to make it to the knockout stage it will be the first time since the World Cup took on its current format (1986) that both teams from the previous World Cup final will have failed to make it to the knockout stage.  In fact every team since 1986 that has been in a final has advanced at the next World Cup with the notable exception of the 2002 French squad.

Several surprising names lead groups - Slovenia, Ghana, Uruguay, Paraguay - and there have been several upsets, as noted above.  Could this be signaling a change in international soccer?  Only time will tell.  There are still a lot of games to play but so far the little guys are making names for themselves in South Africa.

Going from Bad to Worse…

Things are going from bad to worse for the French.  Nicolas Anelka has been sent home by the French FA after getting into it with Raymond Domenech.  France has looked poor during the World Cup, playing to a listless draw with Uruguay and losing 2-0 to Mexico.  Their chances of advancing from the group stage are virtually nil.  All Uruguay and Mexico need to do to advance is play to a draw.  I would be surprised if the result is anything different.  Even if El Tri or Uruguay win the game, France would need to win by a healthy margin (they are -2 in goal difference) over South Africa to secure passage to the round of 16.
You have to wonder if Raymond Domenech is wishing his star charts had told him to bring Karim Benzema along to South Africa.  Now that Anelka is gone, who is going to provide the scoring? Domenech seems unwilling to play Henry, where was he in the loss to Mexico, and the rest of the forwards don't inspire much confidence.  Benzema would have been the answer here if he were included in the squad.  You just can't tell me he isn't one of the 23 best French players.
I wonder if the French are wishing they could get Laurent Blanc to take over starting with the game versus Bafana Bafana.
I would suggest reading this excellent post by Ben Lyttleton on how Domenech has ineptly led France to what appears to be abject failure.