Three Up, Three Down: Ides of March

Three Up

1) Arsenal F.C. - Sure Arsenal will not win a trophy for the seventh consecutive year, but the Gunners are on a high.  Arsenal have won their last 4 games in the Premier League via the comeback, the first time in the twenty year history of the league. Their last loss came nearly a month ago, and they have seen Spurs' lead in the race for the last automatic Champions League position shrink from 10 to just 1. Arsenal's next three matches (away to Everton, at home to Villa, and away to QPR) are winnable. If the Gunners can win 7 on the trot, they would enter what could be a pivotal match with Manchester City on April 8 with the kind of confidence that will erase two earlier defeats at the hands of the Sky Blues.

 2)  Chelsea F.C. - The Blues have played themselves out of Three Down and into Three Up. Since sacking André Villas-Boas, Chelsea has done nothing but win. A 2-nil win over Birmingham in the FA Cup and a 1-nil win at Stamford Bridge over Stoke set the Blues up for a dramatic comeback against Napoli.  The West London side came into their Round of 16, second leg match down 3-1, but were able to overturn that deficit.  The old guard of Didier Drogba, Frank Lampard and John Terry led the Blues as they charged to a 4-1 extra-time victory.  Despite the victory, Chelsea are a volatile team.  While they have shown more life under Roberto Di Matteo, the team has been a bit like Jekyll and Hyde this season.  Which personality will prevail?

3)  Real Madrid - Los Merengues do nothing but win. With just 1 loss this season to a team not named Barcelona (high-flying Valencian side Levante beat Madrid 1-nil back in September), Madrid have built up a seemingly insurmountable 10 point lead at the top of the La Liga table. In Europe, Madrid's form has been equally impressive.  A 4-1 drubbing of CSKA Moscow ensured their progression in the Champions League, and the draw fell in their favor with APOEL as their quarterfinal opponents.  All signs point to a potential Clásico match against Barça in the Champions League final.

Three Up, Three Down: First Take

Welcome to the first post in what will be a weekly series highlighting those teams/players/ideas whose fortunes are on the rise or fall based on events during the week.

Three Up

1) APOEL F.C. - Everyone loves a Cinderella story, and the 2011-2012 Champions League has one, APOEL F.C.  The first Cypriot side to make it to the group stage of the Champions League (their first visit was in 2009-10), APOEL continue to be trailblazers for the Cypriot First Division. Marching its way through qualifying, APOEL knocked out 3 league champions along the way (Skënderbeu Korçë from Albania, Slovak champ Slovan Bratislava, and Wisła Kraków out of Poland).  Once in the group stages, APOEL took care of three more league champions (FC Porto from Portugal, Russian side Zenit St. Petersburg, and Ukrainian club Shakhtar Donetsk). The plucky Cypriots haven't looked back, defeating Olympique Lyonnais 4-3 on penalties.  APOEL will likely face a much tougher draw in the quarterfinals, but don't count them out.

 2) Arsenal F.C. - This might look a bit like a homer call, as I make no attempt to hide my love of the north London side, but Arsenal have been trending upward for the last several weeks.  Following two embarrassing defeats (4-0 away to AC Milan and 2-0 against Sunderland at the Stadium of Light) in the span of a week, the Gunners seem to have found the form and luck they had been missing for much of the early part of the season.  A 5-2 drubbing of rivals Spurs was followed by a last gasp winner against Liverpool at Anfield and a comprehensive 3-nil victory over Milan in the return leg of their Champions League round of 16 match.  In the last two weeks, the Gunners have closed the gap on Spurs for 3rd in the Premier League table to 4 points from 10.  Beyond matches on the pitch, it was announced that Arsenal will sign German international forward, Lukas Podolski, in the offseason.  Not bad for a side that looked like it might miss out on Champions League football for the first time in 15 seasons.

3)  F.C. Barcelona/Lionel Messi - It might seem odd to put the defending European champions and three-time defending Ballon d'Ors winner on this list, but did you see the highlights of their 7-1 dismantling of Bayer Leverkusen?  Messi scored a Champions League record 5 goals in the match. While Barça sit 10 points adrift of Real Madrid in La Liga, they look every bit the favorites to repeat as winners of the Champions League.

Thoughts on the Champions League

The Champions League Round of 16 draw

NOTE: Due to a technical snafu, this post wasn't published yesterday morning (despite my scheduling it).  The post below was written on Sunday, prior to any of the Champions League games.  I must say, I hope I predict the outcomes of today's (Wednesday's) games as well as I did Tuesday's.


Embarrassing.  It has to be the first word that comes to the mind of any Arsenal fan or player after the Gunners' poor showing against Milan.

Impressive.  The only word that can describe Barcelona's run of dominance in Europe's most prestigious club competition.  Winning 3-1 on the road against an opponent (Bayer Leverkusen) from one of the top 5 leagues proves the Catalans' pedigree.

Hope. APOEL and Benfica have it despite narrow losses away from home.  The Cypriot side is down just 1-0 to perennial French powerhouse, Lyon, heading back to Nicosia. The Portuguese leaders may be in the driver's seat despite a narrow 3-2 loss to Zenit in St. Petersburg.  With two away goals in their pocket, much will be expected of the Eagles when the teams face off in Lisbon on March 6.

Looking ahead, there are 4 games on tap this week: CSKA Moscow hosting Real Madrid and Chelsea at Napoli on Tuesday; Basel at home against Bayern Munich and Inter travelling to Marseille on Wednesday.

Champions League Semifinal Preview: Manchester United - Schalke

Schalke, the surprise team of the season, look to continue
their magical run against Manchester United.

For soccer fans, the end of April can be a melancholy time.  Domestic leagues around Europe are winding down, and the transfer window doesn't open until July 1.  But, one thing that makes the end of April exciting is the culmination of the season long UEFA Champions League.

This year's Champions League semifinals should offer some exciting soccer.  Three of the most well-known soccer clubs in the world are in the final 4, and there is a Cinderella team for all those fans who like cheering for the underdog.  What more could you ask for?  As an Arsenal fan, I suppose I could have asked for the Gunners to make it to the semis, but I'm just excited at the prospect of some good soccer.

The first match (April 26th at 2:45pm Eastern), will see this season's surprise team, FC Schalke 04, take on one of the preeminent sides in Europe, Manchester United. While this match may not have the flash of the other semifinal, expect some good soccer.  It pits a side that has hit its scoring stride (Schalke outscored Inter Milan 7-3 on aggregate in their quarterfinal meeting) against a side that has conceded just three goals in 10 Champions league games!

Schalke have been a classic example of a Jekyll and Hyde side this season.  Prior to sacking Felix Magath in March, die Königsblauen (the Royal Blues) were struggling in the Bundesliga and still sit just 10th.  While their domestic form left something to be desired, Schalke was simultaneously turning in strong performances in both the DFB-Pokal (German Cup) and the Champions League.  Since Ralf Rangnick's appointment it seems the German side has found some joy on the pitch.  Under Rangnick, who spent a spell as manager with Schalke in 2004-2005, Schalke have parlayed their form in cup competitions into better form in the Bundesliga (2 wins and a draw away to Werder Bremen).

While the team, as a whole, has underperformed, Raúl seems to have found the Fountain of Youth in Gelsenkirchen.  The Spaniard, a legend for Real Madrid, has scored 18 goals and assisted on 6 more in all competitions for Schalke this season.  Playing sidekick to Raúl, the Royal Blues boast Peruvian playmaker, Jefferson Farfán and Dutch forward, Klaas-Jan Huntelaar. Farfán has been a creative force throughout the Champions League and has tallied 4 goals in the competition (10 goals, 8 assists overall).  Huntelaar, hampered by injuries of late, he hasn't played since the end of February, but could be back for the clash with the Red Devils.  His presence on the field (10 goals in all competitions) would certainly boost the Germans' hopes.

On the other side of the pitch, Manchester United again find themselves the last English team standing.  The Red Devils will be looking to make it to their 3rd final in the last four seasons (winning in 2008 against Chelsea, and losing in 2009 to Barcelona).  The beginning of the season saw many pundits writing of Manchester United's demise - the team was too old, Wayne Rooney had lost his form, the big money teams of Chelsea and Manchester City had bought too much talent.  It turns out rumors of their demise were greatly exaggerated.  Man U has lost just 3 games in the Premier League this season, and hasn't lost in the Champions League.

Like Raúl, Ryan Giggs and Edwin van der Sar seem to have found the Fountain of Youth in Northwest England.  Both evergreens are having excellent seasons.  Giggs has 3 goals and 10 assists in 34 appearances this season, while van der Sar has 13 clean sheets in league play and 7 in the Champions League.  The Red Devils aren't just getting contributions from their veterans.  Javier 'Chicharito' Hernández has been a revelation this season, scoring 11 times in the EPL and another 4 in the Champions League.  Nani has developed into one of the best wingers in the world (9 goals and 14 assists in the EPL this season), and Wayne Rooney has seem to have refound his form since his amazing bicycle kick goal.

This matchup would seem to favor Manchester United, but Man U does not have the best of luck with German teams in the Champions League.  Check out this post on the Red Devils' history against Bundesliga teams. While past results are not indicative of future performance, you have to wonder if Schalke will find some magic.  With the first game taking place at Veltins-Arena, the Royal Blues will have every chance to take a lead heading into the 2nd leg.

Prediction: Manchester United advance, but don't win as convincingly as most EPL fans might expect.  I see a draw or even a loss for the Red Devils in Germany, followed by a victory at Old Trafford.

Agree? Disagree? Think I'm crazy?  Leave  a comment, and come back tomorrow for a preview of the second Champions League match - Barcelona vs. Real Madrid.

Top Ten - English Transfer Window Signings

The dust has settled on what was a crazy January transfer window.  One of the biggest names in world football switched teams, and several up-and-coming players will be plying their trade in new locales.  Obviously, much attention has been focused on the move of Fernando Torres to Chelsea, but there was a lot more action.  What were the ten best signings in the English Premier League during the transfer window?

10. Curtis Davies - Davies moves across the city from Aston Villa to Birmingham City.  He brings the Blues a strong replacement for the injured Scott Dann, who had become a rock in central defense.  Davies, who missed time last season due to a shoulder injury, fell out of favor with Gérard Houllier and couldn't crack the 4-deep center back rotation at Villa.  I don't really understand why Davies wasn't given the opportunity given Villa's poor performance early in the season.  Villa's loss, both in terms of the player and the nearly £8 million difference between investment and sale, is City's gain.

9. Andy Carroll - Newcastle born and raised, the young forward left his hometown club to move to Liverpool.  While it seems clear that Carroll didn't want to leave St. James Park, Newcastle United had no choice but to take the ludicrous £35 million offer the Reds threw their way.  Carroll would be higher on this list if he had more Premier League experience and if he weren't out with a thigh injury.  While Carroll has shown a lot of promise, he has only played in 33 EPL games, though he has scored 14 goals.  It seems to me that Liverpool pair a premium for Carroll simply because he is English.  How else do you explain the fact that Carrol cost £12 million more than Luis Suárez (who will make an appearance further up this list). If Carroll continues to develop he could be an even better signing, but I find the price Liverpool paid a bit tough to justify.

8. Jean Makoun/Michael Bradley - I know that this is a bit of a cop-out, combining two players as one signing, but Aston Villa did a lot to strengthen the center of their midfield with the £6 million capture of the Cameroonian midfielder from Olympique Lyonnais and the loan of the American midfielder from Borussia Monchengladbach. Makoun brings composure on the ball, good visions, and the knack for scoring timely goals.

Like Makoun, Bradley is an energetic box-to-box midfielder.  Bradley was a goal scoring machine in his time with SC Heerenveen, and has shown a touch for scoring with 'Gladbach. He was one of the stars of the U.S. team at the 2010 World Cup and should provide Villa with an excellent partner to Makoun.

7. Sully Muntari/Stéphane Sessègnon - Another combination, but Sunderland strengthened their attack and midfield with these two signings.  Muntari, moving on loan from Inter Milan, will bring steel to the midfield.  He will provide both good vision (as shown by his ball over the top to fellow Ghanaian Asamoah Gyan against Stoke City)  and energy in the center of the park.

Sessègnon, who had fallen out of favor at Paris Saint-Germain, with provide the Black Cats with some creativity out of the midfield or in a withdrawn forward position.  The Benin international played well against Stoke and should help Gyan keep the attack going while Danny Wellbeck and Fraizer Campbell recover from injury.

6. David Bentley - The supremely talented, though somewhat enigmatic winger moves on loan from Tottenham to Birmingham in a bid to find regular playing time.  Bentley, who started his career with Arsenal, but made his biggest impact with Blackburn, has loads of talent but can't seem to find the pitch on a regular basis. In his first match, he won man-of-the-match for his work against Aston Villa. He scored his first goal for the Blues against Coventry City in the FA Cup. If Bentley can keep up this form, he will certainly help the Blues keep their place in the EPL.

5. Edin Džeko - On talent alone, the Bosnian striker would be higher on this list, but questions remain on how he will fit into the squad on the pitch.  He has been one of the most sought after players in world soccer over the last several years.  He was the engine that drove the attack for VfL Wolfsburg in his time in Germany.  The reason he lands at #5 is due to questions on how he will fit into the mercenary side at Manchester City.  With Carlos Tévez an ever-present in the lineup, and  Manchester City and Roberto Mancini preferring a 4-3-3 formation where does Džeko fit? Tévez prefers playing in the center of the park, and Džeko does as well.  Neither seems a natural fit on the wing.  Will City change their lineup? They could shift to a 4-4-1-1 with David Silva sliding back to a left-sided midfield spot, with Tévez in a withdrawn forward role and Džeko up top.  If City find a way to truly incorporate Džeko he would have to move up this list. Plus, not to knock Andy Carroll, he was nearly £8 million cheaper.

4. Fernando Torres - El Niño lands at #4 due to similar concerns expressed in my critique of the Edin Džeko move.  Torres is undoubtedly talented, and brings an amazing goal scoring record in the Premier League to Stamford Bridge (65 goals in 102 games).  However, where does the Spaniard fit into a Chelsea side with so much (volatile) attacking talent?  Nicolas Anelka will not stand for being dropped from the first XI, nor will Didier Drogba. While Ankelka has slotted in well on the wing, neither Drogba nor Torres are a natural fit on the wing.  Perhaps a 4-3-1-2 formation with one of the forward occupying a withdrawn role would work the best, but it remains to be seen if Carlo Ancelotti will alter his system.

3. David Luiz - The Blues make a second appearance on the list, this time for signing the dynamic Brazilian defender for up to £26.5 million from Benfica.  With Chelsea clearly in need of defensive help, Luiz was an excellent signing.  He was a huge part of a rock-solid defense as Benfica conceded just 20 goals on their way to the Portuguese title last season.  He is versatile (he can play left back or center back) and is strong in the air.  At just 23, Luiz has time to grow into an even better player and will a rock in Chelsea's defense for years. Plus, how could you not like this guy, he has some of the best hair in English soccer!

2. Luis Suárez - Suárez is probably best known in America for his handball against Ghana during the 2010 World Cup.  The handball, which looked stupid at the time, saved La Celeste from defeat at the hands of the Black Stars.  However, people would be remiss if they aren't aware of the young strikers immense talent.  The Uruguay international has a history of scoring goals (111 goals in 159 appearances for Ajax), something Liverpool will need after the departure of Torres.  He made a positive debut for the Reds, getting credit for what was certainly an own goal for Andy Wilkinson of Stoke.  Costing less than Andy Carroll and with a much stronger track record, Suárez is the best signing of the transfer window for Liverpool.

1. Darren Bent - Darren Bent is a goal scorer.  Plain and simple.  Aston Villa needed a player up top who could put the ball in the back of the net, and they got that when they signed Bent from Sunderland for £18 million.  Bent, who scored 24 Premier League goals just two season ago, provides Villa with proven finisher.  Many thought Villa paid too much for Bent, but Bent proved his worth scoring the game winner against Manchester City (his debut for Villa).  When you consider the cost of the other forwards on this list, Bent certainly looks like he could be a bargain.  Villa is fighting to move into the top half of the table, and stay away from the relegation zone,  and Bent and their midfield signings will help Villa realize that goal.

Other signings that merit mention are Robbie Keane's move to West Ham, a team that sorely needs a goal scorer, and Blackpool's signings of Andy Reid and James Beattie - two players who should help the Seasiders keep their place in the Premier League.

Agree with my selections, disagree, leave a comment.

Champions League Preview: Group H

Group H continues the pattern established by many of the other groups.  One team as prohibitive favorite (Arsenal), and several teams (Shakhtar Donetsk, Partizan Belgrade, and Braga) competing for second place.

Arsenal F.C. - One of the most storied clubs in English football, Arsenal have seen a bit of a hardware drought over the last 5 seasons.  Their last major trophy was the FA Cup in 2005.  While the North London side remain perennial contenders, they have not been able to break the recent Chelsea-Manchester United duopoly at the top of the English Premier League.  In addition, there has been only moderate success in the Champions League (advancing to at least the quarterfinals every year since 2007, and almost always advancing from their group), with their best finish being runners-up in 2006.

This year's squad resembles the United Nations, with players from 17 different countries.  Manager Arsène Wenger is highly respected and seems to be able to get the best out of players (look no further than former Gunner Thierry Henry).  Wenger dipped into the transfer market this summer to sign Moroccan forward Marouane Chamakh, and a pair of French defenders (Laurent Koscielny and Sébastien Squillaci).  Chamakh address the lack of depth at the forward position that was exposed when Robin Van Persie missed significant time with injuries last season.  With the departure of Eduardo to Group H rivals Shakhtar, the Gunners couldn't stand pat.  Squillaci and Koscielny fill the hole created by the departure of William Gallas, who never really fit in at the Emirates. The one weakness that Arsenal did not address was goalkeeper.  Manuel Almunia and his two Polish deputies are just not good enough to lead a team to the Champions League trophy.  If Arsenal are going to make a deep run they will need to complete the rumored signing of Mark Schwarzer or sign another keeper.

While no team can match the high-flying start Chelsea has put together, Arsenal has seen a great deal of success in the early EPL season.  With a 3-1-0 record, the Gunners sit 2nd in the table, 2 points adrift of the Blues.  This year's squad has the look of contenders in the EPL, but it might be too tough to catch the buzz saw that is Chelsea.

Arsenal are the clear favorites in this group.  With a history of advancing deep into the tournament, a manager that is one of the world's best, and a beautiful brand of attacking football, Arsenal should win Group H with little trouble.

Former Gunner Eduardo, now with Shakhtar Donetsk,
will seek to oust his former teammates

FC Shakhtar Donetsk - The 2009 UEFA Cup winners, Shakhtar have become a fixture in the Champions League over the last decade.  Consistently in the top two in the Ukrainian Premier League, Shakhtar are looking to advance from the group stage for the first time.  Thanks to the rise in competitiveness of the Ukrainian League, Shakhtar were able to qualify directly for the group stage of this year's competition.  In year's past it had taken at least one round of qualifying for Shakhtar to make the group stage.

Shahktar's current squad is made primarily of Ukrainian and Brazilian players, with players from the former Soviet Union making up the bulk of the rest.  Perhaps the two biggest signings of the summer were the aforementioned capture of Eduardo from Arsenal, and the signing of young, Ukrainian defender Dmytro Chygrynskiy from Barcelona.  The squad, captained by veteran, Croatian midfielder Darijo Srna certainly has the talent to make an impact in the Champions League.

On the domestic front, the Ukrainian league has completed 9 rounds, and Shakhtar sit atop the table.  With a 7-1-1 record, Shakhtar are 2 points ahead of rival Dynamo Kyiv.

Following their victory in the 2009 UEFA Cup, it is clear that Shakhtar need to be taken seriously.  In their last trip to the group stage, in 2008-2009, Shakhtar finished 3-0-3 and narrowly missed advancing.  This season, they might top that performance. Given this composition of this group, Shakhtar are in a good position to advance to the knockout round.

Braga are making their first Champions League appearance.
Will they find beginner's luck?

S.C. Braga - A truly unfancied side from Portugal, Braga stormed out of the gates last season and found themselves atop the Portuguese Liga early in the 2009-2010 season.  Ultimately, Benfica finished atop the table, but Braga had secured their first trip to the Champions League.  After dispatching Celtic and Sevilla on the way to the group stage, it is clear Braga have come to play.

Braga was relatively quiet on the transfer front, and why not, the team had its most successful season last year.  The current squad consists almost entirely of Brazilian and Portuguese players, with one of my favorite names in soccer: George Lucas (wouldn't the Imperial March from Star Wars be great intro music for him and his teammates?)

While Braga had been hanging around the top 4 or 5 for the better part of this decade, they were finally able the break into the top 2.  The Portuguese Liga is one of the most top-heavy leagues in European soccer, being dominated by just three teams: FC Porto, Benfica and Sporting CP.  The fact that the plucky side from the north of Portugal displaced one of the "Big Three" is refreshing. This season sees Braga sitting 4th in the table, at 2-1-1.  With the only  loss coming to table-topping Porto, Braga should be happy with their record heading into their first Champions League group stage match.

Braga certainly have the talent to compete in this group, but their lack of experience at this level could be a handicap.  In a group where the other three entrants have all played multiple seasons in the Champions League, you have to wonder if Braga will be able to put together the consistency necessary to make it to the knockout round.

Partizan have been extremely successful domestically,
can they transfer their success to the Champions League?

FK Partizan - Easily one of the most storied clubs in Serbia, Partizan are making their third straight appearance in the Champions League, but their first group stage appearance since 2003-2004.  Interestingly, Partizan have the same number of runner-up finishes as Arsenal, despite being from a much smaller league, and being far less known.

The current rosters consists almost entirely of Serbian players, many of them new to the squad.  Partizan were busy during the transfer window, bringing in 19 new players and sending 13 players packing.  One has to wonder if that much change to a squad that is the three-time defending champions of the Serbian League is wise.  No names jump out as me as being major additions or subtractions, so perhaps Partizan will not lose chemistry and moment with such a high turnover.

If the results from the domestic league are any indication, the roster turnover has not hurt Partizan.  With 4 wins from 4 matches, Partizan sit atop the table with 12 points and a +8 goal differential.  If Partizan continues to play at such a high level, the Belgrade side just might win its 4th league title in a row.

Partizan are a bit of an unknown. While the team has the tradition, the current squad has not been together long enough.  Also, Partizan has been absent from the group stage for 7 seasons.  Will this lack of experience hurt Partizan?  Partizan's last trip to the group stage was not a good one, as they finished last in their group with a 0-3-3 record.  I suspect the Serbian side will acquit themselves better this time around, though more than a Europa League spot might be a pipe dream.

Predictions: Arsenal outclass the rest of the group and win easily.  Shahktar finish second to become the first Ukrainian side to advance past the group stage.

Champions League Preview: Group G

Following previews of groups where one team stood head and shoulders above the rest followed by teams competing for second, we reach the 'Group of Death'.  Every international soccer competition has one and Group G is this year's version.  With three former Champions League winners (A.C. Milan, Real Madrid, and AFC Ajax), and a relative newcomer from a top 5 league (AJ Auxerre), this group is tough from top to bottom.

Zlatan Ibrahimović will look to find his scoring touch with AC Milan.
In his last stint in Italy, he scored 57 goals in 88 appearances for Inter.

A.C. Milan - The second team in the competition from Milan, A.C. Milan are a fixture in the Champions League.  Milan have won the title 7 times (2nd most all-time), the most recent in 2007.  Since that win, Milan haven't made it past the round of 16.  Milan are looking to make a deep run in the Champions League, and certainly have the roster to make that a reality.

Milan, a team that hasn't won the scudetto since 2004, made a determined effort this summer to add new talent to an already talented squad.  Joining the Rossoneri were Robinho (from Manchester City), Zlatan Ibrahimović (from Barcelona), Kevin-Prince Boateng (from Portsmouth), Mario Yepes (from Chievo Verona) and Marco Amelia (from Genoa).  To add this many players with much talent is almost unheard of.  By adding Robinho and Ibrahimović to an attack that already boasted Alexandre Pato, Filippo Inzaghi and Ronaldinho, Milan have one of the best forward lines in the competition. Ibrahimović even suggested that Milan should play as many as 5 forwards because there is "[n]o need to track back if you score plenty of goals." While I don't see this happening the thought of those five players running around the offensive half of the field is exciting.  The other summer additions, add depth to the defense and midfield and by adding Amelia, Milan got much stronger between the posts (though for some reason incumbent keeper Christian Abbiati has started both Serie A games thus far).  The biggest departure from the club was Klaas-Jan Huntelaar who joined Schalke.  His departure, after a lackluster time at the San Siro, will not impact Milan very much and was addressed by the additions of Robinho and Ibrahimović.  Also, there needs to be a quick mention that Milan have Oguchi Onyewu, one the U.S.'s best players currently on their roster.

With the threat of a player strike in Serie A looming, Milan are currently 1-0-1 in domestic league play.  Following a 4-0 demolition of U.S. Lecce in Milan, the Rossoneri suffered an embarrassing 2-0 loss to newly promoted A.C. Cesena.  The most interesting fact about the loss to Cesena, is that the plucky side from Emilia-Romagna had been in the Italian third division just two season ago.  For Milan, 7 time European champions and 4 time world champions, to lose to a club of that stature is shocking.  Perhaps Massimiliano Allegri should listen to Ibra's suggestion and play 5 forwards.

Milan certainly have the talent to make noise in this group, but if the team has too many uninspired outings like their recent match against Cesena, they will be playing in the Europa League (or worse not playing in Europe at all).

The 'Special One' will look to guide Real Madrid to the Champions League
title after guiding Inter Milan the last season's hardware.

Real Madrid C.F. - The all-time leaders in Champions League victories (9) haven't won the competition since 2002.  Despite their best efforts to collect as many soccer superstars as possible, the Blancos continue to come up short in Europe.   Real Madrid have not been past the round of 16 since 2004 when they were ousted by A.S. Monaco in the quarterfinals. Typically known for their splashy additions, they made one of the biggest moves of the summer by adding José Mourinho as manager.  Mourinho is a master tactician and led Inter to the title last season.  Will he have the same success in at the Bernabéu? Club president Florentino Pérez certainly hopes he does.

Like fellow group-mate, Milan, Real Made made several high-profile signings over the summer.  Apparently whomever makes the personnel decisions for the Blancos was watching the World Cup, as Real Madrid went out and signed several players who burst onto the seen in South Africa.  Mesut Özil and Sami Khedira both proved their worth for Germany this summer and joined Real Madrid from SV Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart respectively.  Also joining the Spanish side were Ricardo Carvalho (from Chelsea) and influential, Argentine winger Ángel di María.  Adding these players to the other Galácticos already at Real Madrid gives the team the appearance of a fantasy soccer league team.  The amount of attacking talent rivals that of Milan, with the added bonus of having arguably the world's best goalkeeper (Iker Casillas) between the posts.

On the domestic front, Real are continually locked in a battle with Barcelona for the top spot on La Liga.  Fans in the Spanish capital will certainly be hoping that the Special One can deliver another La Liga title, but Real Madrid are off to a lackluster start.  Thus far Real Madrid has played to a 0-0 draw with RCD Mallorca away, and a narrow victory over Osasuna 1-0 in Madrid.

Despite the slow start, Real Madrid remain a co-favorite to win this group.  With the amount of talent they possess (I didn't even mention the likes of Gonzalo Higuaín, Cristiano Ronaldo, or Kaká) Real Madrid should easily secure a spot in the knockout round.

AFC Ajax - The Dutch side have by far the most Champions League titles of any team not from the big 4 (sorry France) leagues.  With 4 titles to their name, Ajax are tied for the 4th most titles.  Three of those titles came during a dominant stretch in the early 1970s when they were led by the inimitable Johan Cruyff.  Over the past several seasons, Ajax seem to have lost their grasp on Dutch football, having not won an Eredivisie title since 2004.  While they have been titleless, Ajax have been near the top of the league.  Due to the odd method (a 4 team playoff between teams 2-5) the Dutch use to determine their Champions League representatives Ajax, despite finishing 2nd for several season, has not been in the Champions League since 2008.  This season marks their first appearance in the knockout round since 2006.

Despite a strong showing last season, and the promise of Champions League soccer, Ajax have seen several players exit the Amsterdam Arena.  The most notable are Marko Pantelić and Dennis Rommedahl (to Olympiacos), and Kerlon (to Inter).  On the positive side, Ajax brought in some of the top talent in the Dutch league, signing Andre Ooijer (from AZ Alkmaar) and Mounir El Hamdaoui (from PSV Eindhoven).

Clearly the departures has not affected Ajax, as they currently top the Eredivisie standings.  Through 8 games, Ajax have a 6-2-0 record and a +18 goal differential.  Already three points clear of their nearest competitors, it looks like Ajax could recapture the league title this season.

With Ajax in fine form entering their first Champions League match (against Real Madrid in Madrid), the Dutch side merit watching.  They have a history of winning this tournament, and while their recent history hasn't been as bright, they are not a team to underestimate.

AJ Auxerre - Not among the "name" teams in the Ligue 1, Auxerre enter this campaign a relatively unfancied side.  When I was researching for this post, I came across an interesting tidbit which said that Auxerre is the only team to have never been relegated from the French first division.  I found this shocking, but I found the fact in multiple sources. Relative upstarts in this group, Auxerre finally return to the Champions League after an 8 year absence.  Their last trip to the Champions League in 2002-2003 saw them finish third in a group behind Arsenal and Borussia Dortmund, but ahead of PSV.

The Burgundy side saw stability reign over the summer with few players coming or going, none worth noting.  The current squad is a mix of French players and players from Francophone Africa, with a few other European players included. Valter Birsa made a name for himself at the World Cup, by scoring against the U.S. in the controversial draw with Slovenia.  An interesting roster note is that Auxerre are the only team I have ever seen to have a player from Madagascar (forward Anicet Andrianantenaina).

Auxerre have gotten off to a slow start in Ligue 1, drawing 4 times in five games.  While they have only lost once, it is clear that the Champions League is on their minds.  Auxerre will need to step up their game if they intend to qualify for next season's Champions League.

As far as their prospects go this season, I think Auxerre are the weakest team in this group.  That said, they could knock off a complacent Milan, or take some points from Ajax.  If Auxerre replicates their performance in the 2003 Champions League, where they went 2-1-3, the Burgundians should be happy.

Predictions: Real Madrid win this group, with Ajax pulling an upset to finish 2nd.  I feel that A.C. Milan are a tad too dysfunctional to make a run, despite their talent.

Champions League Preview: Group E

Group E, at first glance doesn't look very difficult.  The group has one traditional power (FC Bayern Munich), a club on the rise from one of big 5 league (AS Roma), and two relative upstarts (FC Basel 1893 and CFR Cluj).  As with several of the other groups already previewed, there is one clear favorite in this group (Bayern Munich).  What makes this group different is the presence of a presumptive second place team (Roma).  Will there be surprises in the group?


FC Bayern Munich - Bayern Munich, last year's losing finalists, have to be smiling when they look at this group.  The Bavarian side are clearly the class of the group.  With a history that includes 4 Champions League titles, the most recent in 2001, Bayern are contenders virtually every year.  Bayern have won 6 league titles this decade, and despite an early stumble in the Bundesliga, look poised to contend again this season.

Last season, Bayern won the Bundesliga title, finishing 5 points clear of Schalke.  Over the summer, Bayern made no major purchases to augment a successful 2010 squad.  With Breno and Toni Kroos returning from loan spells, the side has gotten better without spending a lot of money.  Just as Bayern did not bringing in players, no major players left the squad.

In what has become something of a trend among Champions League teams, Bayern has stumbled out of the gate in the Bundesliga.  Prior to the international break, Bayern split its first two games, winning 2-1 at home against VfL Wolfsburg and losing 2-0 away to Kaiserslautern. Louis Van Gaal will look to right ship when Bayern host Werder Bremen on Saturday.

As with last season, Bayern will go as far as, Dutch international, Arjen Robben can take them.  If the oft-injured Dutchman can stay healthy and pair with World Cup revelation, Thomas Müller, Bayern have the team to make a deep run.

Which Adriano will Roma get? The prolific scorer or
party-going, locker room distraction.

A.S. Roma - Seemingly always the bridesmaid, and rarely the bride, Roma are looking to break that tradition this season.  Roma's best showing in the Champions League came when they finished runners-up in 1984.  This year's squad will look to repeat their stunning 2007-2008 group win (they pipped Chelsea to the top spot).  There are some similarities between this season and 2007-2008.  Roma were clearly the 2nd (or even 3rd) best team on paper in their group (this year I say they're 2nd).  Though they won the group, Roma couldn't advance past the round of 16, losing on penalties to Arsenal.

Looking to build on their recent success, Roma was relatively active in the transfer market, adding firepower to their strike force, and reinforcing their defense.  Roma are the most recent team to take a chance on mercurial forward, Adriano, while also adding Marco Borriello. Roma should score plenty of goals, as they are adding this offensive talent to Francesco Totti, Mirko Vučinić, and Jeremy Menez.  On the backline, Roma added the brothers Burdisso, Nicolás (from Inter) and Guillermo (from Rosario Central in Argentina).  With no major subtractions, Roma should be a better team this season.

Following a second place finish (just 2 points behind Inter) Roma will look to make a breakthrough on the domestic scene.  Currently, the Giallorossi have played just one game in Serie A (a 0-0 draw with Cesena) and could be facing a long layoff from domestic play as the Serie A players' union have announced a potential strike to begin on September 25.

Roma are clearly the favorites to finish second in this group.  With a very talented squad, and the lack of additions by Bayern, Roma might be able to push the German champions for first in the group.


FC Basel 1893 - The Swiss champions, FC Basel, have been fixtures at the top of the league since 2002.    With 5 Swiss championships since 2002, Basel will look to advance from the group stage for the first time. Their best showing in the Champions League came in 2002-2003 when they made it to the second group stage (equivalent to the group stage in the current format).  Basel entered the competition in the 3rd qualifying round and defeated Hungarian champions, Debreceni VSC (group stage participants last season) and Moldovan champions, Sheriff Tiraspol on their way to the group stage. Domestically, Basel have played 7 games, posting a 4-2-1 record, good enough for second place behind FC Luzern.

Basel, because they are in one of the middling leagues in Europe, tend not to make a big splash in the transfer market.  All of Basel's signings over the summer were from within the Swiss League (with the exception of Fwayo Tembo, who joined from ES Sahel of Tunisia) .  The only major loss was Portuguese winger, Carlitos, who signed with Hannover 96 of the Bundesliga.

Basel will look to have a better showing than last season's Swiss entrant, FC Zürich, who finished 1-1-4 with a -9 goal difference.  While I believe Basel will play better, I don't see them advancing.  They might be able to pull off one upset (perhaps against Roma) when playing at home.  Zürich was able to pull an upset of AC Milan at the San Siro last year, so anything is possible.  A best case scenario for the Swiss side is to finish 3rd in the group and qualify for the Europa League.

CFR Cluj are relative newcomers to the European stage.
Will they be able to pull off an upset, as they did in 2007-2008 against Roma?

CFR Cluj - A team with relatively little history in the Romanian top flight, just 16 seasons since 1946, Cluj are an example of what a team can do if they suddenly acquire significant financial backing.  In the Romanian third division as recently as 2002, Cluj have risen through the Romanian soccer ranks to capture two of the last three Liga I titles. During their previous appearance in the Champions League group stage, Cluj defeated Roma 2-1 in Rome, and drew with Chelsea in Cluj-Napoca.

Cluj's squad has surprisingly few Romanians, as the team has imported international players in an attempt to win the league and compete in Europe.  One of their best players, Ciprian Deac, left the club over the summer and signed with fellow Champions League side, Schalke.  Cluj did add some new, international talent over the summer, but nobody of note.

Along with Unirea Urziceni, Cluj have (over the last several seasons) displaced the Bucharest teams at the top of the domestic table.  This season, though, seems to be returning the Bucharest teams to power, as Cluj currently sit in 10th with a 2-2-3 record.  Will playing the Champions League hurt Cluj's chances to win a 2nd straight Liga I title?  Time will tell.

Cluj need to manage expectations in this competition.  If Cluj can even duplicate the success of their last appearance, they would be lucky.  Given their poor domestic form, I wouldn't be surprised to see Cluj finish at the bottom of this group.

Predictions: Bayern Munich will top this group, though I do see a bit of a struggle for them against Roma.  Roma will finish second, taking advantage of matches against clearly weaker sides.

Champions League Preview: Group B

Group B is, perhaps, the most intriguing in the tournament.  With Lyon, a semifinalist last season; Benfica, the Portuguese Liga champions; Schalke, perennial contenders in the Bundesliga; and Hapoel Tel Aviv, Israeli champions, this group is competitive from top to bottom, even if it lacks some of the star power of other groups.

Lyon added French playmaker, Yoann Gourcuff in an effort to
regain the Ligue 1 title and replicate their semifinal run from last year.

Olympique Lyonnais - Lyon made a surprising run to the semifinals last season, their first appearance at that stage.  They made the jump to the semis after three straight appearances in the quarterfinals.  In order to make the semis, Lyon took out Real Madrid and Bordeaux along the way.  Domestically, Lyon finished 6 points behind Marseille, but earlier in the decade Les Gones won 7 straight Ligue 1 titles.


In Ligue 1 this season, Lyon currently sits at 1-1-1.  They started the season with a defeat of Stade Brestois, but then lost to SM Caen, and drew with AS Monaco.  Seemingly in response to this less than stellar beginning of the season, Lyon nabbed Yoann Gourcuff from Bordeaux for €22 million.  Gourcuff is widely regarded as the future of French soccer, and is often saddled with the "next Zidane" title.  Gourcuff was French Player of the year in 2009 and provides Lyon with the playmaker they have been lacking. Earlier in the summer, Lyon signed Jimmy Briand from Stade Rennes to bolster their attack.  Adding Briand and Gourcuff to a team that already included the stellar Hugo Lloris in goal, the dangerous Michel Bastos on the wing, and 2010 Ligue 1 player of the year Lisandro López, make Lyon a formidable team.

With no major subtractions from the team that made last years semis, Lyon is the favorite in this group. Last year, they made it out of a group containing Liverpool, Fiorentina and Debrecen (from Hungary).  This year's group is easier. While the group is by no means a shoo-in for Lyon, they should take most of the points at home and steal a few on the road.

S.L. Benfica - Last season, Benfica lost only 2 games on their way to their 32nd league title, their first since 2005.  This season's Champions League marks the first appearance in the Group Stage for Benfica since the 2007-2008 season. Benfica will look to replicate Porto's 2009-2010 form, when the Portuguese champions advanced to the round of 16.


Of the teams that we have previewed thus far, Benfica have been the most active in the transfer market this summer, both bringing in players and seeing players leave the team.  Joining the team are: former Arsenal midfielder Alyaksandr Hleb (on loan from Barcelona) UPDATE: Turns out the news that Hleb signed for Benfica was still just rumor.  He has instead signed with Birmingham City; promising young forward Rodrigo (from Real Madrid); and young, Argentine defender Nicolás Gaitán.  While Benfica have added some talent, they have lost more than they gained. Winger Ángel di María and midfielder Ramires both have moved on to bigger clubs (Real Madrid and Chelsea, respectively).  Replacing these players will not be easy, as di María's attacking prowess and Ramires's control in the midfield were vital to the Lisbon side last season.  Benfica have not brought in adequate replacements and have already seen a drop in form as a result.  They have sputtered to an 0-2-0 start, losing 2-1 to Académica in Lisbon and 2-1 to Nacional away.

Benfica need to figure things out and find replacements for di María and Ramires if they want to make it out of the group.  A Europa League spot may be in their future.

F.C. Schalke 04 - The Bundesliga runners-up last season, Schalke always seem to contend for the German title.  While they have not won the title in since 1958, they have finished second 3 times in the past six seasons and have not finished outside the top half since the 1999-2000 season.

Unlike several of the teams already previewed, Schalke actually imported talent from Real Madrid, adding defender Christoph Metzelder and forward Raúl.  In addition to the pair, Schalke also added forward Erik Jendrišek from Kaiserslautern.  Jendrišek scored 15 goals for Kaiserslautern last season in the 2. Bundelisga and will combine with Raúl to help replace the scoring lost when Kevin Kurányi departed for Dynamo Moscow.  Does Raúl still have some gas left in the tank? Schalke needs Raúl to recapture some of his former scoring touch if they hope to replace Kurányi, who has been in fine form for Dynamo, scoring 3 goals in 4 games.

Schalke has its first two games in the Bundesliga, by identical 2-1 scorelines.  With German international goalkeeper, Manuel Neuer, captaining the side and U.S. international Jermaine Jones healthy once again, I expect Schalke to bounce back and compete for the Bundesliga title this season.  The battle for 2nd in Group B will likely come down to Benfica and Schalke, though both have the talent to pip Lyon to the top spot.  If Schalke can get production out of Raúl and recent signing Ciprian Deac (signed from CFR 1907 Cluj and unveiled on Friday) a spot in the round of 16 is certainly within the realm of possibility.

Hapoel Tel Aviv F.C. - I will admit that I didn't know much about the Israeli champions prior to writing this preview.  Israeli soccer is on the fringes of Europe, both geographically and on the pitch.  However, in each of the last two seasons, the Israeli champion has advanced to the group stages, despite entering the competition during the 2nd qualifying round.  Along the way, Hapoel defeated Bosnian champions Željezničar, Kazakh champions Aktobe, and Austrian champions Red Bull Salzburg.  Ironically, Red Bull Salzburg was also the last victim of Maccabi Haifa on their way to the group stage last year.

Due to Israeli FA restrictions, only 5 non-Israeli players are permitted on the roster at any given time.  This rule handicaps Israeli teams when they enter European competitions, where most teams are a mix of domestic and foreign talent.  Hapoel's best known player outside of Israel is probably Nigerian international goalkeeper, Vincent Enyeama.  Enyeama acquitted himself nicely during this summer's World Cup, putting on an acrobatic display against Argentina.

Hapoel will look to avoid Maccabi's fate, as Maccabi lost all 6 games last season and failed to score a goal.  Hapoel has a better shot of pulling a result or two, especially at home, as Maccabi was in a group with Juventus, Bordeaux and (eventual runners-up) Bayern Munich.  This group is certainly easier, but it might be too much to ask for the Red Demons to advance.  The Israelis would do well to qualify for the Europa League.

My prediction:  Lyon will win this group, though not as easily as they should.  Schalke finishes second.

World Cup Final: Spain vs. the Netherlands

I'm not even sure that I need to write this post because Paul the Octopus has predicted a Spanish victory.  As far as I know, he hasn't also broken down the match-ups.  Don't worry Paul, I'll do that for you.  It can be tough blogging with 8 arms, suction cups, and no opposable thumbs.

Not since Red and Orange fought over who would be first in the rainbow (red won that fight and will here too) have we seen an epic match between those two colors.  La Furia Roja (the Red Fury) take on the Oranje (the Orange) on Sunday for the World Cup title.  Spain and the Netherlands are almost universally recognized as the two best teams to never win a World Cup.  One team loses that status on Sunday, while the other will carry that mantle for at least 4 more years.  Both are dangerous sides and have been historic underachievers.

Despite their collective, historic skill, neither team has had the success to match.  The Dutch have contested two finals (1974 and 1978), have won 1 European championship (1988) and been close several other times.  Both near misses for the Dutch involved playing the host country in the final.  Both times they lost.  South Africa has happily obliged the Dutch in not making the final, so at least they won't have to face a team with the home field advantage on their side.  Spain's best showing at the World Cup, prior to this year, was way back in 1950 when they finished 4th.  The Spanish have also won two European championships (1964 and 2008) and have been ranked 1st or 2nd for he better part of the last 2 years.  While the match may not include Brazil, Italy, England or Argentina, this is a heavyweight fight.

Goalkeeper - This match-up is almost a no-contest.   Iker Casillas is head-and-shoulders better than Maarten Stekelenburg.  I know that many have been talking Stekelenburg up during the tournament, but I just don't see it.  He was shaky against Uruguay, letting in a Jabulani goal by Diego Forlán.  Granted, Stekelenburg has made some great saves, but to call him the best keeper at the World Cup is certainly hyperbole. His time on the club level at Ajax would seem to confirm that he is a good keeper, but not of the same class as Casillas. On the other side of the pitch, Casillas has rebounded nicely from early tournament drama.  He looked distracted during the group stage, perhaps as a result of his girlfriend calling him out , or perhaps it was due to a long season backstopping Real Madrid.  Whatever the reason, Casillas has rebounded to look like the man who earned the moniker St. Iker.  I expect Casillas to perform up to his usual standards.  If Stekelenburg can regain the form he showed earlier in the tournament, the Dutch will be in a good position.  If plays like he did against Uruguay, the Dutch are in trouble.  Advantage: Spain

Defense - This match-up again favors Spain.  The Spanish fullbacks get forward better than Netherlands, especially Sergio Ramos, who was a monster in attack against Germany game.  Joan Capdevila doesn't get the same kind of press as Ramos, but he has done well on the left.  The Dutch will have Gregory Van Der Wiel back and Giovanni Van Bronckhorst did unleash what might be the goal of the tournament (watch the highlights), but the Spanish fullbacks are still the class in this game.  Carles Puyol and Gerard Piqué are both better than the Dutch center back tandem of Joris Mathijsen and John Heitinga.  Puyol was a beast in the Germany game, scoring the game winner in the 73rd minute.  Pique has also been solid.  The will have their hands full with the Dutch attack, but I also thought they would have difficulty with Germany and they shut down what had been a prolific German attack.  Mathijsen and Heitinga are both good defenders, but I question their ability to consistently stop the Spanish attack.  David Villa should find some room to run against the Dutch D, which is definitely not a good thing.

Midfield - This is where the game will take place.  The match in the middle of the park is the marquee portion of the World Cup finals.  The Dutch midfield will likely consist of  Wesley Sneijder, Arjen Robben, Dirk Kuyt, Mark Van Bommel and Nigel De Jong.  I like the team better when Rafael Van der Vaart is on the pitch, but I suspect Bert van Marwijk will go with what has worked for the entire tournament (match against Uruguay not included due to De Jong's suspension).  The Spanish will have to stop Sneijder and Robben from making dangerous runs out of the midfield.  Sneijder has been electric the entire tournament.  He is tied for the Golden Boot with David Villa and doesn't look like he is going to slow down.  Robben has been excellent since his return from injury and provides the Dutch with the necessary width to attack the Spanish defense.  Kuyt has done the dirty work in attack and has been underrated this tournament.

The Spanish will likely deploy Xavi, Andrés Iniesta, Xabi Alonso and Sergio Busquets with David Silva and Cesc Fábregas off the bench. The Spanish are spoiled for choice in their lineup and having Fabregas on the bench as a super-sub is an ace in the hole for them.  David Silva or Fabregas could start in the place of the ineffective Fernando Torres, or Vicente Del Bosque could go with Pedro up front as a compliment to Villa.  I think the Spanish will need to attack down the wing in order to avoid the Van Bommel and De Jong.  It will be interesting to see if Van Bommel and De Jong can disrupt the Spanish midfield with their hard tackles.  It isn't too had to imagine a hard tackle by one of the Dutch enforcers altering the game in their favor.  Both teams hold the ball well, but Spain's game is more predicated on possession and short passing than the Dutch.  I hope that we will see the flowing soccer that has been a hallmark of the Dutch and Spanish sides in their past.  Advantage: Push

Forwards - Based solely on this tournament, this would appear to be another no-contest.  David Villa is tied for the Golden Boot, while Robin Van Persie has disappeared for long stretches.  Van Persie's disappearing act belies his skill, one need look no further than his campaign with Arsenal this year.  In just 2o appearances, he scored 10 goals and had 8 assists!  Not a bad ratio if you ask me.

Villa, of course, has been superlative at this World Cup and internationally for Spain.  He has been prolific for La Furia Roja, making 64 appearances and scoring 43 goals.  This past club season saw him score 28 goals and dish out 10 assists in 45 appearances for Valencia and led to a move to Barcelona.

Beyond the obvious starters, Spain has greater depth than the Dutch.  Klaas-Jan Huntelaar is not on par with Fernando Torres when he is playing his best.  Right now, the argument could be made they are much closer (given Torres' slump), though Huntelaar has seen only 49 total minutes of action in South Africa.  Beyond Huntelaar, the Dutch don't have any strikers on their roster, as Ryan Babel and Eljero Elia are wingers and generally play closer to the midfield.  Neither has seen much playing time (Babel has not gotten into a game, and Elia has played a total of 89 minutes).  As mentioned above, Pedro could also play a role in this game.  He was dangerous against Spain and could come off the bench or start in place of Torres.  Beyond Pedro, the Spanish have Fernando Llorente and Jesús Navas on the bench.  Llorente is more of a striker, while Navas is a winger.  As with their Dutch counterparts, neither has seen much time in South Africa.  Llorente has played 32 minutes, while Navas has started one game (against Honduras) and played 29 minutes in another.  Neither of Navas' games have been since the group stage.  Advantage: Spain

If Spain can keep possession the way they did against Germany and find Villa making runs through the Dutch defense Spain will win this game.  If the Spanish allow the Dutch midfield space, especially Robben and Sneijder, Spain will be in trouble.  Robben and Sneijder are creative enough to conjure moments of glory out of nowhere and the Spanish must be mindful.  Ultimately, I think the Spanish will prevail in a close game.  The top-to-bottom quality of the Spanish side will overwhelm the Dutch, despite the Dutch having a world-class midfield.  Final score: Spain 2 - Netherlands 1.

I hope that Paul the Octopus approves of this post.